CHM Blog

Its Friday, not much movement early today, the 10 year note at 9 am ET unchanged from yesterday’s improvement, MBS prices at 9 am +2 bps. No news that motivates traders. With inflation data to be reported next week and nothing on the calendar between now and next Wednesday and Thursday. President Biden in India for the G-20 meeting over the weekend.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said US monetary policy is “in a good place,” but officials will need to parse through data to decide on how to proceed on interest rates. “I think we’ve gotten monetary policy in a very good place in terms of we have a restrictive stance of policy… We’ll have to keep watching the data carefully analyzing all of that and really asking ourselves the question: is this sufficiently restrictive,” he said. “Do we need to maybe raise rates again to make sure that we’re keeping that steady progress in terms of shrinking imbalances in the labor market and bring inflation back down?”

Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan said that skipping an interest-rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may be appropriate, “but skipping does not imply stopping… In coming months, further evaluation of the data and outlook could confirm that we need to do more to extinguish inflation.”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his view that the economy is slowing and signaled that the central bank’s rate-hiking campaign should be given time to work. “What I’m grateful to say is we’ve seen inflation come down... I feel like we’re in a restrictive space now. And now we just need to let that restriction play out.”

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: “We are very rapidly approaching the time when our argument is not going to be about how high should the rates go... Instead, it’s going to be an argument of how long do we need to keep the rates at this position before we’re sure that we’re on the path back to the target.”

Two days ago, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins: “This phase of our policy cycle requires patience, and holistic data assessment, while we stay the course … And while we may be near, or even at, the peak for policy rates, further tightening could be warranted, depending on the incoming data.”

The FOMC meeting is on Sept 19 and 20. Next Wednesday August CPI. Thursday August PPI and August retail sales.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +18, NASDAQ +23, S&P +5. 10 year 4.23% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +10 bps from yeste4rday’s close and +31 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am preliminary July wholesale inventories were thought to be -0.1% after June’s -0.5%; as released inventories -0.2%.

Our focus today doesn’t happen until 3 pm this afternoon, revolving credit (credit card).

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.23% -2 bp

5 year note: 4.34% -3 bp

2 year note: 4.94% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.30% -4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.97 +10 bp (+31 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.37 +14 bp (+31 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.75 +17 bp (+41 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7,3460 +$0.0174

Dollar/Yen: 147.49 +0.29 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0720 +$0.0024

Dollar Index: 104.87 -0.19

Gold: $1947.90 +$5.40

Bitcoin: 25,883 -104

Crude Oil: $87.13 +$0.26

DJIA: 34,486 -15

NASDAQ: 13,778 +29

S&P 500: 4458 +7 bp

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.