CHM Blog

Should be very quiet today with no news other than earnings reports. The stock indexes in pre-opening trade were better; the 10 year note at 8 am ET 3.82 -3 bp. MBS prices opened 14 bps better from yesterday with treasuries lower.

We have been talking about the overbought stock indexes recently; in need of a major correction and it hasn’t happened yet, but it will. Not the end of the world and not the end of equity markets. Technically there hasn’t been any significant levels tested. Investors and traders will hang in there until the S&P tests 4650 according to technical traders we talk to (4535). Here is what one trader is saying, “A pullback to support at 4440 would close several gaps on the S&P chart. That is relatively minor support, though. Below that, support exists at 4385. Then there are the two major support levels at 4330 and 4200. A pullback below 4330 would be extremely negative and would be cause to change the “core” stance from its present bullish orientation”.

Nothing now but wait for the confirmation the Fed will increase the FF rate next Wednesday, its fully discounted in present levels. What isn’t discounted is what J Powell and the FOMC policy statement may indicate going toward the September FOMC meeting. Yesterday former Fed chair Ben Bernanke: “the September meeting is very much up for grabs,”… “We have a number of reports between now and then, and it is possible this increase in July is the last one,” Bernanke made it clear there isn’t going to be any rate cuts this year, the Fed will hold rates steady for a while. He believes if there is a recession it will be relatively mild.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +72, NASDAQ +83, S&P +16. 10 year 3.82% -3 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +12 bps from yesterday’s close and +21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

Tony Bennett, the ubiquitous popular singer whose warm, easygoing interpretations of classic standards ushered the pop and jazz of the Great American Songbook into the 21st century, has died. He was 96.

Nothing on the calendar today. Looks like it will be quiet today ahead of FOMC next week. Not just the Fed, on Thursday the ECB policy meeting expecting a 25 bp increase.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 3.82% -3 bp

5 year note: 4.07% -4 bp

2 year note: 4.85% -2 bp

30 year bond: 3.87% -4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.91 +12 bp (+23 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.59 +12 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.61 +13 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1821 +$0.0045

Dollar/Yen: 141.60 +1.53 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1122 -$0.0008

Dollar Index: 100.98 +0.10

Gold: $1964.40 -$6.50

Bitcoin: 29,839 +117

Crude Oil: $76.35 +$0.70

DJIA: 35,243 +18

NASDAQ: 14,096 +32

S&P 500: 4542 +7

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.