CHM Blog

Rate markets began quietly but lower by 2 bps on the 10 year, the 2 year note yield down 5 bps. Over the last five sessions rates have been trading in narrow ranges, not clear about what the Fed will do and inflation readings due tomorrow and Thursday with March CPI and PPI.

Interesting but not something that gets much attention; the March NFIB small business optimism index dipped a little, but fractionally better than forecasts at 89.0, as reported the index at 90.1 but down from 90.9.

The debate continues; recession, inflation, the Fed stopping rate increases. Tomorrow CPI then PPI on Thursday, after those investors will search for more information. The money supply is getting attention now, supply is collapsing in the UK, Eurozone and US according to money supply economists and foretells recession coming. US M2; cash in circulation plus dollars in bank and money-market accounts is collapsing in the UK, Eurozone and US. The decline in M2 is suggesting recession is a distinct possibility. Every Thursday the money supply is reported, look for more attention to be paid to it.

The IMF and World bank are meeting this week in Washington, the meeting includes G-20. The IMF scheduled to release its World Economic Outlook report this morning, with revised global growth forecasts, and co-host a debt roundtable Wednesday. The G-20 wraps up its meetings on Thursday.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +44, NASDAQ -18, S&P +1. 10 year note unchanged at 3.42%. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon -6 bps and -11 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; the 6.0 coupon -20 bps and -23 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 1 pm Treasury will auction $40B of 3 year notes; tomorrow 432b of 10s (9 years 10 months.)

IMF cutting its growth rate to 2.8% from 3.0%, 01.% lower than its forecasts in January.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 3.42% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.53% unch

2 year note: 4.01% unch

30 year bond: 3.64% unch

Libor Rates: 1 month 4.900%; 3 month 5.198%; 6 month 5.237%; 1 year 5.128% (4/10/23)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.69 -20 bp (-23 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.66 -9 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.56 -9 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.8849 +$0.0032

Dollar/Yen: 133.38 -0.22 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0917 +$0.0057

Dollar Index: 102.09 -0.48

Gold: $2015.30 +$11.50

Bitcoin: 30,128 +1,017

Crude Oil: $80.17 +$0.43

DJIA: 33,605 +18

NASDAQ: 12,058 -25

S&P 500: 4108 -1

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.