October 2nd, 2023 11:03 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
No government shutdown until at least mid-November, Congress passed an extension for 45 days when the whole issue will begin again.
The interest rate sector wasn’t as concerned about a shutdown as the media and pundits that were talking about it all last week. This morning markets are reaching new highs, the 10 year note at 4.64% at 9 am ET +6 more bps to 4.64%, each increase sets another new high from 2007. The pressure point this morning is waiting for Jerome Powell to speak along with Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. Last week NY Fed’s Williams said interest rates should remain high for “some time”.
UAW in its 18th day and 25K workers are striking. The demands from UAW according to recent comments are aggressive, 30% pay increase, pay for five days but work for four days.
Employment continues strong, inflation cooling a little but with the rapid increase in energy costs, consumers pulling back spending and sentiment declining it is a conundrum for traders, money managers and investor about what to do. The Fed seems intent to push the economy over the edge into recession while most big voices still hanging on to a ‘soft landing’.
The betting today over another increase in November is now at 33%, up from 25% last Friday. There isn’t much enthusiasm for lower rates this morning. Wages are headed higher, how much is uncertain, watching the UAW strike. All recent data confirms the consumer becoming less positive.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.66% +8 bp
5 year note: 4.69% +7 bp
2 year note: 5.11% +5 bp
30 year bond: 4.74% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 98.36 -34 bp (-54 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 96.29 -34 bp (-69 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 96.71 -32 bp (-70 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.3015 +$0.0063
Dollar/Yen: 149.85 +0.48 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0517 -$0.0058
Dollar Index: 106.69 +0.46
Gold: $1851.30 -$15.00
Bitcoin: 28,469 +1353
Crude Oil: $90.20 -$0.59
DJIA: 33,401 -106
NASDAQ: 13,272 +73
S&P 500: 4290 +2
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.