CHM Blog

Last Friday the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde commented that the potential for a 50 bp increase in rates is a possibility when it meets in May. Rates didn’t take it well. Then the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index exploded in just two weeks since the final March data. The reactions sent the 10 year note yield 8 bps higher to 3.52%, the 2 year note +11 bps to 4.10%. This morning the 10 began at 3.57% +5 bps, the 2 year 4.16% +6 bps. Consumers presenting somewhat a mixed picture, the sentiment is high, but March retail sales declined for the second month in a row (sales expected -0.4% declined 1.0%, excluding autos sales were thought to be down 0.4% as reported -0.8%.

This morning the NY Empire state manufacturing index that has been declining for three months, expected -18.3 from -24.6 in March increased to 10.8.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +32, NASDAQ -6, S&P -1. 10 year note 3.56% +4 bps, FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -22 bps from Friday and -31 bp from 9:30 am Friday, the 6.0 coupon -25 bp and -25 bp from 9:30 am Friday.

At 10 am April NAHB housing market index, expected at 45 from 44 in March, the index reported at 45, (the low for the index was 34 in February).

The central banks continue to send mixed comments from members of the FOMC and ECB, as well as other key banks. One will say a rate increase is necessary in May, the next up saying maybe we should wait and let the recent increases filter through the economy. The markets swing on every remark but the 10 remains in its 20 bp comfort zone (3.40%/3.60%).This morning the 10 closing in on the upside of the range.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 3.56% +4 bp

5 year note: 3.66% +5 bp

2 year note: 4.16% +6 bp

30 year bond: 3.78% +4 bp

Libor Rates: 1 month 4.960%; 3 month 5.261%; 6 month 5.305%; 1 year 5.272% (4/14/23)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.59 -25 bp (-25 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.52 -22 bp (-31 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.53 -19 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.8761 +$0.0046

Dollar/Yen: 134.37 +0.58 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0938 -$0.0055

Dollar Index: 101.89 +0.34

Gold: $2010.20 -$5.60

Bitcoin: 29,450 -888

Crude Oil: $81.91 -$0.61

DJIA: 33,924 +37

NASDAQ: 12,139 +16

S&P 500: 4139 +1

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.