CHM Blog

This morning the 10 year note began the session +1 bp from yesterday at 4.26%, MBS prices started flat. Overnight there wasn’t anything that influenced US markets.

February durable goods orders at 8:30 am ET expected +1.3% increased 1.4% after declining in January -6.9%; excluding transportation orders +0.5% as expected and better than -0.3% in January. Core capital goods were thought to be +0.1% increased 0.7%.

At 9 am January Case/Shiller home price index thought to be +0.2% increased 0.1% from December, year/year prices increased 6.6% as expected. A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose 0.4% in January and was also up 6% over the past year. The annual increase was the fastest since 2022, S&P said. The FHFA home price index -0.1%, year/year +6.3%. The median sales price $379, 100 in January, and a newly built home was $414,900.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +44, NASDAQ +64, S&P +11. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.26% +1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from yesterday’s close and -3 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am March consumer confidence index estimates were the index unchanged from February at 106.7, confidence declined to 104.7, February revised from 106.7 to 104.08. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 151.0 in March from 147.6 in February. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 73.8, down from 76.3 last month. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a forthcoming recession.

At 1 pm Treasury will auction $67B of 5 year notes, yesterday’s 2 year auction met with soft demand.

The US bond market scheduled to close early on Thursday at 2 pm and be closed on Friday for Holy Week and Easter. On Friday, the Fed’s favorite inflation data (PCE) is scheduled to be reported with no means to respond with markets closed. The usual reaction increases volatility regardless of how the report matches the forecasts, the inability to adjust to the data will put traders in delicate situations. Tomorrow doesn’t have any news, Thursday weekly claims, Q4 GDP, February pending home sales, the Chicago purchasing managers index for February, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.27% +2 bp

5 year note: 4.26% +2 bp

2 year note: 4.62% + 3 bp

30 year bond: 4.42% unch

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.90 -6 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.16 -6 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.91 +2 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2187 +$0.0085

Dollar/Yen: 151.45 +0.04 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0851 +$0.0012

Dollar Index: 104.14 -0.09

Gold: $2,186.30 +$9.90

Bitcoin: 70,914 -95

Crude Oil: $81.81 -$0.14

DJIA: 39,348 +34

NASDAQ: 16,455 +71

S&P 500: 5231 +13

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.