CHM Blog

The 10 year note began at 3.51% this morning (7:30 am ET). Stock indexes at 7 am, the DJIA was up 110, by 8:30 am +46. Market concerns focused on the debt ceiling, no movement but hope was up overnight. No meeting today; tomorrow Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders are planning a meeting; Biden said he believed a deal could be reached, adding he’s a “congenital optimist.” Fed officials out in force today; Atlanta Fed’s Bostic scheduled at 7:30 am, (non-voter) said that he does not expect inflation to come down quickly, adding that rate cuts in 2023 are not in his baseline forecast, he speaks three time today (7:30 am, 8:45 am, and 2 pm), Chicago’s Goolsbee at 8:30 am, Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 9:15 am, 5 pm Fed Governor Cook. Nothing new is likely, talking about inflation targets and the economy.

No direct inflation data this week, the key data for markets tomorrow’s retail sales. Housing data with starts and permits, NHAB housing market index and April existing home sales. On Friday Powell will join Ben Bernanke in a conversation. The debt ceiling will also get attention although so far markets haven’t seen any reaction that has moved financial markets.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +24 after trading up 110 at 7 am; NASDAQ opened +15, S&P +5. 10 year note 3.50% +3 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -2 bp -21 bp from 9:30 am Friday, the 5.5 coupon -12 bps and -46 bp from 9:30 am Friday.

Looking for the 10 year and MBS prices to remain in their very tight ranges. Friday’s discussion between Powell and Bernanke looms but won’t get market’s attention until later this week.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 3.50% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.47% +2 bp

2 year note: 4.00% unch

30 year bond: 3.83% +4 bp

Libor Rates: 5 105%; 3 month 5.318%; 6 month 5.343%; 1 year 5.256% (5/12/23)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.70 -2 bp (-21 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.48 -12 bp (-46 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.31 -11 bp (-35 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.9533 -$0.0049

Dollar/Yen: 136.12 +0.39 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.00880 +$0.0028

Dollar Index: 1002.51 -0.17

Gold: $2021.30 +$1.50

Bitcoin: 27,430 +481

Crude Oil: $70.65 +$0.61

DJIA: 33,270 -93

NASDAQ: 12,287 +1

S&P 500: 4117 -6

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.