CHM Blog

Weekly MBA mortgage applications ticked higher last week, +9.4% overall, +9.4% for purchase applications and +9.2% for re-finances the best in over a month. It was the third consecutive weekly growth in application volumes, the longest streak since early December 2024. Refinances 56% better than one year ago, purchase apps 25% from a year ago.

This afternoon at 2 pm ET minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. Traders looking for clues about what went on in the meeting. The forecasts are mostly guesses and change with each key economic release. Last week’s June employment report better than forecasts took the idea of a rate cut at the July 30th FOMC meeting off the table; anticipating Fed rate cuts is as fluid as holding water in your hand, depends on the next key measurement that will come next week.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +187 after declining 166 yesterday, NASDAQ +112, S&P +27. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.39% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30am +7 bps from yesterday’s close and +12 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

Beside the FOMC minutes this afternoon, Treasury will auction $39B of 10 year notes, the demand for yesterday’s 3 year note auction was very weak. Big investors are not jumping to buy US debt. When the BBB was passed the CBO indicated it would add $3 trillion to the debt over 10 years, today Bloomberg upped that to $5 trillion.

Look to 2 pm for reaction to the FOMC minutes.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.39% -2 bp

5 year note: 3.96% -2 bp

2 year note: 3.89% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.92% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.37 +7 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.18 +7 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.27 +4 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 146.50 -0.07 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1704 -$0.0022

Dollar Index: 97.58 +0.06

Gold: $3,304. 50 -$12.40

Bitcoin: 109,551 +746

Crude Oil: $67.95 -$0.38

DJIA: 44,471 +230

NASDAQ: 20,637 +219

S&P 500: 6266 +41

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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