CHM Blog

Over the weekend the President extended EU tariffs to July 9th after conversations with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after she agreed to fast-track trade deals with the US. The European Union’s chief trade negotiator said Monday he had “good calls” with administration officials and the E.U. was “fully committed” to reaching a trade deal by a July 9 deadline, after the President agreed to delay his threatened 50% tariff — or import tax — on European goods. These trade deals are long and detailed. Stock index futures rallied on the tariff extension.

This is a very busy week for data and information. The minutes from the FOMC meeting, PCE inflation, consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, April personal income and spending, 2, 5, and 7 year note auctions (the 2 this afternoon).

Goldman Sachs is saying tariffs will not increase inflation but will slow economic growth. Core inflation has been relatively flat over the past two months at +2.6% but Goldman seeing inflation at 3.6% later this year.

At 8:30 am ET April durable goods orders, new orders expected -8.1%, declined -6.3%, core -1.3% against -0.2% estimates.

At 9 am Case/Shiller March home price index thought to be +0.3% month/month declined 0.1%; year/year +4.1% from +4.5% in February. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the United States fell by 0.1% in March with expectations at +0.1%. For the first quarter, prices were up 4% compared to the same period in 2024 and increased 0.7% from the previous quarter.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +344, NASDAQ +284, S&P +68. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.48%. FNMA 6.0 coupon at 9:30 am +14 bps from Friday’s close and +12 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

At 10 am May consumer confidence index from the Conference Board expected at 87.3 reported at 98.0. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose 4.8 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was May 19, 2025. About half of the responses were collected after the May 12 announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.

At 1 pm $69B 2 year note auction.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.48% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.06% -2 bp

2 year note: 3.99% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.99% -5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.68 +14 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.45 +7 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.60 -4 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 143.95 +1.10 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1372 -$0.0017

Dollar Index: 99.27 +0.16

Gold: $3,302.70 -$63.10

Bitcoin: 110,274 +1123

Crude Oil: $61.04 -$0.49

DJIA: 41,985 +386

NASDAQ: 19,007 +270

S&P 500: 5873 +70

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.