July 8th, 2025 8:51 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
This morning at 8:30 am ET the 10 year up 4 more basis points to 4.43% and MBS prices started down 8 bps. Stock indexes traded better in futures trading after declining yesterday.
A weak dollar, the increased concern about the US debt with the BBB and the continuing uncertainty of the impact on the coming tariffs. More delays and the President calling out South Korea and Japan and threatening each with 25% tariffs on August 1st. Neither country has been able to make a deal with the US so far.
Why so much focus on trade deals? Markets don’t have much else to think about this week. This morning the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses) June optimism index thought to be at 98.7 reported at 98.6 and down from 98.8 in May. It doesn’t get much interest. A substantial increase in respondents reporting excess inventories contributed the most to the decline in the index. 19% of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -40 after falling 422 yesterday, NASDAQ +53 from -189, S&P +3 from -49 yesterday. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.43% +5 bps after increasing 4 bps yesterday. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -8 bps from yesterday and -15 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 1 pm Treasury will auction $58B of 3 year notes, demand is key. At 3 pm May consumer credit expected at +$11.5B down from $17.9B in April, also not much of a market-mover.
On June 20th, the 10 yield at 4.44%, on July 1 4.20%, now back to 4.45% up 25 bps.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.43% +5 bp
5 year note: 3.99% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.92% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.96% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.25 -8 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.06 -1 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.16 -6 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 146.76 +0.68 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1709 unch
Dollar Index: 97.71 +0.23
Gold: $3,332.10 -$10.70
Bitcoin: 109,066 +1009
Crude Oil: $67.69 -$0.24
DJIA: 44,352 -55
NASDAQ: 20,430 +18
S&P 500: 6230 unch
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.