CHM Blog

At 8:15 am ADP reported its private jobs count, expected at 103K jobs fell 33K the first time there was a contraction since March 2023. May private jobs were reported +37K, revised lower today to 29K. The service-producing sector lost 66K jobs, due to professional/business services (-56K), education/health (-52K) and financial activities (-14K). On the other hand, jobs were added in leisure/hospitality (32K), trade/transportation/utilities (14K) and information (5K). The goods-producing sector also added 32K jobs: 15K in manufacturing, 9K in construction and 8K in natural resources/mining. Annual pay growth for job-stayers edged down to 4.4% in June from 4.5% in May. Pay growth for job-changers was 6.8% in June, down slightly from 7%. Lay-offs according to ADP are rare but new hiring and replacements lead to the losses.

The initial reaction pulled the 10 year note back 4 bps but it immediately climbed back to 4.30%.

Weekly mortgage applications last week increased 2.7% overall, purchase apps +0.1% after declining 0.4% the prior week. With rates coming down re-finance applications increased 6.5% after increasing 3.0% from the week before.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -76, NASDAQ -5, S&P -6. 10 year 4.30% +6 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -9 bps from yesterday’s close and -7 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

There isn’t anything more scheduled on the calendar today. Traders preparing for the June employment, weekly jobless claims, June ISM service sector index tomorrow.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.30% +6 bp

5 year note: 3.87% +2 bp

2 year note: 3.78% unch

30 year bond: 4.85% +8 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.50 -9 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.25 +6 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.28 -11 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 144.08 +0.67 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1760 -$0.0048

Dollar Index: 97.02 +0.20

Gold: $3,351.30 +$1.50

Bitcoin: 107,967 +2550

Crude Oil: $65.95 +$0.50

DJIA: 44,156 -79

NASDAQ: 20,257 +54

S&P 500: 6199 +1

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.