April 3rd, 2026 9:18 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The stock and energy markets closed for Good Friday. The bond market will close at 12 pm ET.
The March BLS employment release at 8:30 am was one of those shockers that BLS comes up with occasionally. Non-farm payrolls expected +51K increased 178K, the unemployment rate estimates were +4.4% unchanged from February, reported 4.3%. Private jobs estimates were +56K, reported +186K. Average hourly earnings month/month +0.2% against estimates of +0.3%, year/year 3.5% against 3.8% expected. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged this year.
The 10 year prior to the employment data 4.32% +1 bp, the initial reaction drove the note to 4.37%; MBS price -25 bp. There isn’t enough reason to believe the data, that amount of change isn’t realistic. Other employment data doesn’t square with the BLS which has a history of reporting exaggerated data and then later making corrections.
PRICES @ 9:30 AM
10 year note: 4.35% +4 bp
5 year note: 4.00% +4 bp
2 year note: 3.86% +5 bp
30 year bond: 4.92% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.60 -8 bp (+19 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.04 -5 bp (+20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.74 -9 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 159.55 -0.04 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1531 -$0.0009
Dollar Index: 100.06 +0.04
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.